Conflict dynamics
Drivers of violence, armed-group behavior, political exclusion, escalation pathways, and changing patterns of insecurity.
Research Program 01
Conflict and Stability
Independent analysis of the institutions, political settlements, security practices, and regional relationships that shape peace and conflict.
Program purpose
Conflict in the Horn of Africa emerges through interacting political, institutional, social, economic, and environmental pressures. Durable stability requires legitimate institutions, credible political arrangements, accountable security practices, and the capacity to manage disputes before they escalate.
The program studies conflict at local, national, and regional levels. It examines armed actors, state institutions, civilian experiences, external interventions, and the movement of risks across borders. Research seeks to identify the mechanisms that sustain insecurity and the policy choices that can reduce it.
Research priorities
Security institutions
Military effectiveness, civilian oversight, force employment, organizational adaptation, police reform, and institutional legitimacy.
Peace and political settlements
Mediation, negotiation, inclusion, local peace infrastructures, implementation, and the durability of political agreements.
Civilian protection
Community security, displacement, human security, early warning, and institutional responsibility for preventing harm.
Regional security architecture
Cross-border threats, alliances, external powers, maritime security, regional organizations, and security cooperation.
Prevention and recovery
Risk monitoring, stabilization, reintegration, institutional recovery, and policies that reduce renewed violence.
Policy contribution
The program develops conflict assessments, security-sector analysis, early-warning frameworks, institutional diagnostics, scenario exercises, and policy options. Foresight Lab supports this work through data analysis, geospatial methods, machine learning, simulation, and structured assessment of emerging risks.
Questions guiding the program
From diagnosis to durable security.
- Which institutions can prevent escalation?
- How do armed actors adapt to changing conditions?
- What makes political settlements credible?
- How can civilian protection shape security strategy?
- Which regional arrangements reduce shared risks?
- How should recovery address the causes of renewed conflict?