Puntland’s War Against ISIS and the Next Test Against al-Shabaab

Puntland’s war against ISIS-Somalia has become an important counterterrorism campaign in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. Beginning in late 2024, Operation Hillaac pushed into the Cal Miskaad mountains, where ISIS had developed protected positions among caves, valleys, and difficult approaches. By early February 2025, Reuters reported that Puntland forces had captured 250 square kilometers and 50 bases, while commanders described heavy losses on both sides. A month later, Voice of America reported continued advances through the Togjaceel Valley and the capture of caves and villages as ISIS fighters retreated from positions they had been expected to defend more aggressively.

A locally designed campaign

Cal Miskaad imposed its own operational logic. Narrow valleys, caves, limited roads, and difficult communications reduced the value of heavy vehicles and complicated remote surveillance. Puntland forces responded by combining conventional firepower with local methods of movement, intelligence, and sustainment.

This is best understood through tactical congruence: the alignment of strategy, means, organization, and the physical, informational, and social environment. Put more simply, tactical congruence means operational fit. External airpower supported a campaign whose ground organization, tempo, local intelligence, and territorial objectives appear to have been driven primarily by Puntland actors.

Security capacity as political authority

Operation Hillaac adds an empirical dimension to debates over political authority and state capacity in Somalia. Puntland assembled security organizations, sustained a prolonged campaign, coordinated with communities, absorbed casualties, and engaged external military partners. These are consequential practices of governing capacity. They do not resolve disputes over constitutional status or sovereignty. They do show that formal recognition alone provides an incomplete measure of political capacity.

The next test: Operation Onkod

Puntland’s leaders had signaled by late June 2025 that the campaign would extend beyond ISIS. President Said Abdullahi Deni announced that Operation Onkod would follow Hillaac and target al-Shabaab in the Cal Madow mountains. The transition is significant because al-Shabaab presents a different organizational problem. Success against ISIS cannot simply be transferred to another adversary.

What to watch

Three indicators will help judge whether Puntland’s campaign produces durable strategic gains. First is whether security forces can hold and police areas cleared of ISIS. Second is whether Operation Onkod develops around reliable local intelligence and political cooperation. Third is whether external partners continue to provide useful capabilities while Puntland retains operational ownership of the campaign.

Puntland’s experience offers a larger lesson for irregular warfare. Effective counterterrorism depends on the relationship among military capability, territorial knowledge, organization, political legitimacy, and sustained presence. For external partners, the practical lesson is blunt: support the force that fits the terrain, knows the population, and can remain after the strike package leaves.